Florida comes to Whitehall

Dear readers, you've been let down. Apologies to the thousands of surfers fruitlessly coming here for first sight of Gordon Brown's demise. I'd recommend the Guardian liveblog instead.

This morning the Ghosts of Gerhard Schroeder and Al Gore jet into the UK to buddy-up to the (outgoing?) prime minister.

Brown's strategy now is to convince the Liberal Democrats that their best shot ever is to work together on a tight package of reforms (electoral, immigration and Trident) over a two year period. As time marches on Brown's fortunes improve.

In contrast, a delay - even a two-year one - may cost Cameron his party leadership. This was his election to lose, and he may well have done this. So his strategy now is to appeal to public sentiment, by getting the papers to describe him as the victor, and ingrain the narrative that Brown's exit is inevitable.

The optimal Lib Dem strategy is to cave in to Labour. It's a game-changing trajectory for their party, without the costs of incumbency. Also, they won't be rewarded for the "noble" recognition of the Conservative victory.

Although it could go either way:

1. Conservative/Unionist coalition. [40%]
2. Labour/LibDem coalition. [30%]
3. Conservative minority government. [30%]