Wednesday, October 15, 2008

The last debate

Still unsure if I can blog this, as the channels I have access to claim that they won't be covering it. Anyway...

Dramatis Personae
BS - Bob Shaeffer, moderator.
BS - Likely content of tonight's discussion.
BO - Barack Obama, pretender.
JM - John McCain, posttender.
TAP - The (much-venerated-never-questioned) American People

Quoting Zogby "The stagnant nature of this race comes as tonight’s final presidential debate looms. The first two presidential face-offs have been somewhat lackluster, failing to gain a television audience as large as the debate between the vice-presidential candidates, Senator Joe Biden and Governor Sarah Palin. Tonight’s event is the last time Obama and McCain will stand on the same stage before the election."

McCain's last chance to talk in detail.

0:00:00 Shaefer finishes his nonsens, and they stroll on. This is a roundtable. The first question is "why's your economic plan beetter than his?"

0:01:00 McCain reprises his deathbed opening. I didn't hear who was sick this time (Kennedy in the last debate). But the prayers went up. There's a lot of eyelash flutter.

0:03:00 Obama hits the ground running with details. He's following the Palin formula of talking straight into the camera. He has won the debate in the first five minutes. Remarkable.

0:05:20 JM takes the first stab. It's the tax gambit. Incidentally, it revolves around a Joe-sixpack man whose name really is Joe. Supposedly, this man met BO at a rally. JM is doing the Palin thing too now. However belatedly.

Both of them are stressing the differences between themselves. This is JM's last chance to challenge BO's numbers.

0:07:30 BO marshalls independent studies to support his economic policies. So far, there's been nothing new, detail-wise.

0:09:00 remarkably, JM talks to the wrong camera. This is a suable offense.

0:10:30 JM has started fighting. BO looked tired in the last salvo. JM still hasn't found the camera.

0:11:30 Here's a reprise of the "what spending will you cut" question from the last debate.

0:12:50 BO defers the answer until his presidency "I want to go through the federal budget line-by-line," etc.

0:14:00 JM defeats the claim that he's an old man: "During the Depression WE had a thing called..." He gets back to his small government refrain. It's not seemed to work in the past.

0:16:40 Porky, the second debte mascot, makes a dramatic return. She's tackled the same way that BO's done in the past (perspective). So far, BO's been in control of the debate. Ironically, he looks more grandfatherly, which helps in these fragile times.


0:18:00 JM delivers his first attempt at soundbite of the evening "Senator Obama, I'm not President Bush. If you wanted to run against President Bush, you should have run four years ago."

0:21:00 BO turns the soundbite around. He's forced JM to show his pen, which makes him look out of control. This debate is turning into a game changer. But not for Arizona.

0:22:30 Bob Shaeffer (should I call him BS?) asks about the campaign dirt.

0:23:30 BO sneers at the townhall idea. Potential gaffe there. He goes on to dismiss the importance of tone in the debate.

(I only just got to make this blog at the eleventh hour. So it was unprepared. None of the fanfare from the last time. So far, this seems like a more robust version of the last one. So I'm tiring of it.)

0:33:30 JM dredges up the dirt on BO. Who said that negative character portrayals are off the Ayre? Then BO dispatches elegantly. That should be the end of this issue now. BO sneers a little more. Then BS turns the corner.

0:42:00 Some droll remarks about the veeps.

Someone should have taught McCain how to speak slowly. TAP don't like no edgy folk. Even Bush knew this.

Next cycle we should have live audience tracking, to work out for how long people stay tuned into the debates. And at what points they opt out.

I don't know how JM intended to sit through ten townhall debates with such a small stock of ideas.

0:58:00 BREAKTHROUGH - BO says "zero", and JM's jaw drops. It's a long story, though. They're talking healthcare. BO is on top of the details. JM has raced through various options that he didn't seem enthused about. it sounds as if the reigning expert on the McCain healthacre plan is Barack Obama.

1:04:00 Talking judges. After telling us at Saddleback that he didn't like Ruth Bader Ginsburg, JM now proudly reveals that he voted for her.

1:13:00 Mercifully, the last question arrives.

1:24:00 "Gentleman, we have come to the close". JM lies first: "I think we have had a very healthy discussion." Finally he finds the right camera. (Or it finds him.)

Interestingly, JM focuses on his long history, and BO on his short one.

BO wins this one on a clear points decision. It's the first debate with a clear outcome.

G'night.

Thursday, October 9, 2008

The WHO-DF

Herewith, Kylie's email:

It certainly is an exciting proposition, although I am so frightened of being naively optimistic like I was about the UDM in 1999. I think for me one of the many interesting questions would be if a “UDF” was formed what would the ANC do in terms of the electoral system. We have always known that a pure First-Past-the-Post electoral system would obliterate the opposition, so would the ANC now with a real threat to its power finally change the electoral system? Rather than a pure FPTP system I like the idea of a multi-member constituency system which I think combines the benefits of representivity with access and limits the power of party bosses.

Another question is, is this a split in the ANC or a splinter of the ANC? Uncle Thabo did get 40% of the vote at Polokwane – could Lekota and team attract 20 – 30% of the national vote?

My other question about the “UDF” would be who would be its core constituency and what would its political philosophy be? If Lekota’s convention happens in Cape Town or he has a consultative forum here – I will definitely be heading off there. Keen to join me?

By the way – I am now officially unemployed and happily working away at my masters dissertation. Too quickly I am becoming very used to being able to work according to my own schedule.

Tuesday, October 7, 2008

To Nashville!

Err... peeps!

I make no promises, but maybe I can live blog "tonight's" McCain/Obama debate. The challenges before me are:

1. Resolving the permanent barrier between my PC and the tv screen.
2. Staying awake until 4.30AM (Cape Town = UTC+1) when, thankfully, it ends.
3. writing and viewing at the same time.

Watch this space...

OK, the preliminaries:

BACKGROUND: McCain wanted one townhall meet a week (starting in June). Obama's handlers wouldn't let him come out to play. Tonight it happens at last. For the last time.

JARGON:
BLA - Body language alert.
BO -The Jim Crow term for uppity Illinois senators.
FCAn -Fact Check Alert #n.
GA - Gaffe Alert.
JM -JC for Arizona.
K5 -Keating Five (pejorative for the evening).
TM - Tom Brokaw.

STRATEGY:
Obama: - Look presidential.
McCain: - Look parental.

PREDICTIONS:
Another draw. At current levels of support, Obama wins if its a draw. This was his (successful) strategy in the tail of the primaries.

THINGS TO LOOK OUT FOR:
- Obama scowling.
- McCain sneering.
- Obama saying "Uhhh."
- McCain looking at his watch.
- Keating cropping up.
- Obama linking McCain to "the failed policies and philosophy of Bush" for the hundredth time.

OK, so this is a strangely "studio" townhall. Gallup selected the audience. Tom Brokaw officiating. He looks suspiciously like JM. I want to protest, but can't bring myself to.

Funny how the undecideds are exalted. "Only in America." They'll keep schtum.

00:00 They come onstage. JM loos reticent. They stroke each other. I didn't know that JM is a Southpaw. The Republican inside me is stirred.

00:50 BO won the coin toss. The first Bush-McCain link is landed. The scene is set. JM's task is to be au fait with details. He should be spewing numbers. So far BO has rambled superficial.

00:03 JM lies "Senator [Obama], it's good to be with you." He plays the Palin gambit. JM looks more rehearsed here, but I suspect that BO is keeping his powder dry. "Stabilise home values" is more detailed than BO's "executive pay" ramble. He drives a wedge between himself and Bush.

00:05 Brokaw allows JM to play the non-partisan, motivating "the sage from Omaha" for the treasury. BO smiles approvingly.

00:07 BO waxes partisan on tax cuts. His wind has been stolen just a little.

00:09 JM introduces his regulation flip gambit. It's a long story. I didn't expect this. I hear the stirrings of Keating.

00:10 BO hits the detail. He sounds professorial. It should work. But now the gloves come off. "You're not interested in hearing politicians pointing fingers" -after shoving JM ten of the best.

00:13 BO denies that the economy will get worse. "I am cnofident about the American economy" How's that possible if "the fundamentals are strong" is baloney?

00:14 JM asks my question above.

00:15 Not for the first time, a beau stumps BO. He says "uh" a lot. This conceals the question. It may work for him, but that woman sounded livid when she posed the question.

00:18 JM shows good ol' Southern charm. He calls the questioner a cynic. At least he's answering the question. BO sneers. But beautifully. I want to cry.

00:22 JM carries out his first outright duck. He's imbibed the Palin "I won't answer the question the way you want me to" KoolAid.

00:23 BO invokes the ghost of JFK. Where's Keating? I want more mud!

00:25 TB cracks a cute joke about deficits.

00:27 BO looks beautiful offstage. Have I said this before? Oops. Here he comes...

00:28 BLA - JM defies his inner oldman, by standing between questions. Trick is, he has a tiger-prowling reflex, which could hurt. The lanky BO prefers to slouch. Beautifully. (As I may have pointed out before.) BO has done a better job of actually answering this question.

00:34 JM is combining numeric specificity with pugilism. TB reigns in the uppity BO. I don't think it'll work, though.

00:35 FCA1 Do less than 90% of small businesses have an operating profit under $200,000? BO thinks so.

00:38 JM "Medicare is difficult." He's scowling a lot. He's landing some tax-related blows. It may have been a bad idea for BO to pick that fight.

00:40 The first anti-Palin question is asked. JM takes it on the chin. BO stumbles a bit in his fightback. He is restrained again.

Halftime assesment:
BO - He's getting the draw he wanted. The blows have been softer than they could've been. He looks better.
JM - He's doing much better in the economic section than in the first debate. He's more direct. He's been the more interesting character to watch. I feel at one with my inner Limbaugh.

00:46 JM is ducking. Now he returns artfully for a pert 10 second reply. His fighter pilot skills serve him well.

00:47 BLA - The audience is doing a great job of looking unimpressed (except the woman in blue who beams at BO.) I can't wait to see the polls.

00:48 Let's see if JM has learnt from the (recent) past. BO reprises his giveth-taketh-away tax attack from the first debate.

00:49 He hasn't.

00:52 JM infringes BO's copyright on the word "Uhm."

00:54 FCA2 Is Bo gonna fine small businesses that don't insure their staff medically? BO is doing a good job of showing that he feels the pain. You get healthcare for that.

00:55 Ding! TB calls the end to the BO-owned part of the debate. It's off to foreign policy now.

(the fat guy in blue looks like he could take a swipe at JM. I'd nudge the secret service at this point.)

00:60 BO "economizes" the foreign policy debate. Clever lad. We certainly aren't getting the argument-dominance of Biden over Palin in last week's debate.

01:02 On Rwanda and the Holocaust, BO reprises his inner Palin. When JM drops his voice to a whisper, he sounds like he's trying too hard. But if you're not too bored by the discussion you'd notice that between barbs, at least JM is saying something substantive by way of answering the question before him.

01:05 FCA3 I think that BO is wrong about the reasons that Bin Laden escaped. It had nothing to do with a shortage of resources, but a deliberate decision to leave it to Pashtun proxies. By the way, he's ducking what he called "an excellent question" about Pakistani sovereignty. (i.e. is a drone attack an invasion of sovereignty? She was asking about a Cambodia-style operation.)

01:10 "I want exactly the same, but different". JM defies his inner (and outer) old man with some GenY-speak about the surge.

01:10 BLA - JM drinks water through sips and gargles. FCA4 - Is BO's contention that Pakistanis' flagging support for America is limited to support for Musharaf true?

01:13 Palin won her McKieran question. Which of these two will win the Couper-Coles equivalent this time? (the blue lady has stopped smiling. I blame charm fatigue.)

01:15 The answer is neither. JM oversells the surge.

01:18 "Uhhhh.... For the most part I agree with Senator McCain"(Whoever accused BO of eloquence has obviously never heard Jon Kerry and Hilary Clinton.)

01:19 In the homestretch moments, BO reaches out to me by recalling the title of the underloved Jethro Tull jig "Thinking 'round corners."

All of you sit up in bed. don't think in straight lines ahead.
Can't sleep? head spin? don't think in circles, it'll do you in.
Think back to the dream you had; no sense of being good or bad.
Jump to the left, jump to the right. think round corners into night.

01:20 BREAKTHROUGH#1 - JM makes the audience laugh. They've promised not to do it. This is it. As Brokaw announces the last two questions, JM has landed the knockout for the evening. He said "Maybe".

01:22 BREAKTHROUGH#2 JM gets some love (warm smile and handshake) from a bald questioner. Even after his earlier jibe about hair transplants!

01:24 GA (just kidding - disappointingly, there weren't any tonight). Also Keating's been in hiding. The pink shirted baldie gives no love to BO. Dis some Bradley shi'!

01:26 The last question. BO has just finished his impression of talking like a robot.

01:27 BO's overweening ego makes him pass up an opportunity to self-deprecate. He channels his inner Rummy ("unkown knowns"). He decides to override the questioner's question with his own. I'm not just being an egregious redneck. This really happened.

01:29 JM won't dismiss teh question, but he's not gonna rub his nose in it entirely. More Rummy-reprise.

The verdict.
This has been much better for McCain than I'd thought. We now know why Rahm Emanuel wouldn't let Obama out to play townhall-townhall. He sucks at it.
Obama didn't loose the arguments, but this was his turf, and he bestrode it with insufficient dominance. Especially after Biden-Palin, this is net better for the Republican ticket.

It's been a pleasure staying up with you. Goodnight.