Crossover

Today marks a special day, as Obama's presidential approval shows a negative spread for the first time since the Gallup organisation started taking his pulse. The pale green thumbs down line has broken through the dark green thumbs up curve, evincing the first negative week since polling began. The result reflects a rolling average of three-day polls.

In my inauguration special I wrote

Obama's initial rating is unprecedented. This means that he'll lose points during the first year. A twenty point drop will bring him into the mid 60's, which is an attractive rating anywhere in the world. When he breaches 50-something, he has cause for concern, as no full-term president other than Regan and Johnson has managed a V-shaped rating curve. And Johnon had victory in the World War II to help him.

Foolishly, I read his 68% rating as an 86% (I won't divulge what I was smashed on at the time.) I then went on to extrapolate a twenty percent decline taking him back into the sixties. Eish! Nevertheless, the substance of what I stood stands.

I omitted to say that the shape-shifting precedents I quoted came from Gallup. You would have guessed it though, given their monopoly on polling history. I also omitted to mention what Reagan did to make a V. You (seriously) don't want to contemplate that.

As of today, according to Gallup, 45% of Americans think that Obama is doing a commendable job, while 48% believe that he isn't. The difference falls close to the poll's (3%) margin of error, so should not be interpreted with too much foreboding. It's consistent with other polls.

That this ante-blip comes hot on the heels of Healthcare reform, Start III and the unveiling of the nuclear posture is no surprise. Expect him to remain range-bound between 46% and 52% until November. This'll have the predictable effect on his involvement in marginal races.