We are a week away from the 2010 U.S. midterm elections. The outcome is already locked in. Whether the Republicans take the House or the Senate is almost immaterial. It is almost certain that the dynamics of American domestic politics will change. The Democrats will lose their ability to impose cloture in the Senate and thereby shut off debate. Whether they lose the House or not, the Democrats will lose the ability to pass legislation at the will of the House Democratic leadership. The large majority held by the Democrats will be gone, and party discipline will not be strong enough (it never is) to prevent some defections.
Should the Republicans win an overwhelming victory in both houses next week, they will still not have the votes to override presidential vetoes. Therefore they will not be able to legislate unilaterally, and if any legislation is to be passed it will have to be the result of negotiations between the president and the Republican Congressional leadership. Thus, whether the Democrats do better than expected or the Republicans win a massive victory, the practical result will be the same.
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1 comment:
I couldn't say NOTHING:
If the Republicans win 49/50 seats then there'll be hand-wringing about how much blame Christine O'Donnell should shoulder. This will suit the GOP for two reasons:
1. An O'Donnell victory (which won't happen, as has been scientifically demonstrated) would embolden Tea Party types in 2012. It's not in the GOP's interests to front a further-right candidate in that race, so they'll welcome action now.
2. Not controlling the upper house allows Republicans to share the burden of obstructionism (rather than have it all to themselves, as they have over the last two years.) Also, it allows them to blame legislative failure with upward finger-pointing.
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