I missed it.
In both SA and the USA I tend to ignore the SOTN/U address, as I've learnt that there usually is a chasm between its rhetoric and the ensuing action. The test is what the shape of WH policy will be. Surprisingly, the following two reviews - form opposite sides of the US political spectrum, are similarly guarded in their enthusiasm:
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/26/us/politics/26assess.html?_r=1
http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/258016/what-crisis-yuval-levin
My own take (on a speech that I haven't, and won't view/read) is that Krauthamer's early definition of the "Obama three-step" is being played out, except with faster-paced music. Krauthamer's version is that Obama:
1. Begins with a fiery denunciation of Bush (read Republicanism)
2. Trumpets minor deviations from the Bush/Republican script.
3. Quietly proceeds with acquiescence to the core rightist script.
So, e.g, last night's soaring defense of progressive spending policy comes only weeks after the expansion of the Bush tax cuts. The continued rhetoric about Health Care reform (included in last night's speech) masks the reality that there hasn't been any (ignoring, of course, the lobbyist-friendly expansion of health insurance). And so forth.
Obama appears to be riding high on Tucson, but this isn't as good as it looks because:
1. This is an Oklahomaesque tragedy, which has propelled his ratings only back to the 50% mark. A 4% jump. Clinton's post-McVie jump was 5% (I quote Gallup, unless) - off the same base as Obama's - which he gave up two months later.
2. Tucson happened during a politically quiet period, when there wasn't negative news (barring the old-hat low joblessness figures) to counterveil.
3. Tucson happened right after Obama gained kudos amongst independents, by extending the Bush tax cuts (no-child-left-behind and NewSTART were relative grace notes).
4. As the normal post-holiday political season gets underway, the goodwill drag will resume.
Last year saw the Republican's winning the battle of ideas, and consolidating their cooption of the Hope/Change strategy. The current political momentum is theirs to lose. I'm calling Barry at 47% on RCP (and a similar level on the rolling Gallup) by the end of March.
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3 comments:
You've remarked on a speech you haven't seen/read!
The best coverage of it, with actual speech video, commentary, etc. that I've seen is here: http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/interactive/2011/jan/26/state-of-the-union-2010-interactive
I watched it live yesterday with our hispanic nanny. I thought it was a terrific speech with some rousing rhetoric, good jokes, nice response in the room. "America is the country where little people can do big things"! Hear, hear. "We need to out-educate, out-build, out-innovate other countries". Hear, hear.
As ever I really like Obama. And now he's doing better than ever. Just watch ....
"You've remarked on a speech you haven't seen/read!"
I said this, didn't I? If you've actually read my posting (which I urge, seeing as how brilliantly insightful it is) you'll notice that I didn't comment on anything I need to have actually seen/read/smelt/intuited. Such is the genius of my commentary.
Incidentally, when I commented on Bush I wasn't required to qualify by first parsing his every utterance.
"As ever I really like Obama. And now he's doing better than ever."
This is interesting. In a recent "sharing ideas" post you mentioned how while you're repulsed by the Bush tax cuts, extending them is a measure of success! (which must make Georgie a wunderkind, given that he passed them to begin with.)
I respect your right to dig Barry, but you seem to embrace the idea that whatever he does (continued illegal torture, detention and rendition; intensified drone strikes on AfPak civilians; conservative WH staffing & concommitant triangulation; taxpayer-funded financial moral hazard; protectionist trade rhetoric and so forth) is towering progress as long as He's doing it, and egregious conservatism when it comes from Bush.
"Just watch..."
As a veteran trucenteer you ought to know that I always do - just not the teleprompter recitations.
>"As ever I really like Obama. And now he's doing better than ever."
This is interesting. In a recent "sharing ideas" post you mentioned how while you're repulsed by the Bush tax cuts, extending them is a measure of success! (which must make Georgie a wunderkind, given that he passed them to begin with.)
> I was not pleased with the extension of Bush tax cuts to the super-rich. I was disappointed with Obama for not 'fighting' more. However, he did get an extension of unemployment benefits etc. through with it, and the economic advice to him was that, [noxious as the extension was in concept], as a package it was a stimulus. So one had to hold one's nose.
I respect your right to dig Barry, but you seem to embrace the idea that whatever he does (continued illegal torture, detention and rendition; intensified drone strikes on AfPak civilians; conservative WH staffing & concommitant triangulation; taxpayer-funded financial moral hazard; protectionist trade rhetoric and so forth) is towering progress as long as He's doing it, and egregious conservatism when it comes from Bush.
> No I don't embrace all that he does. You list some things above that I don't like [and after seeing 'Inside Job' I especially didn't like him on his financial policy/team-choices'; and I felt he was pretty lame on the health care thing, even though, in the end he got through something very substantive, even if falling far short of what progressives wanted]. But I like him on balance. And I really like him compared to the alternatives (at that time McCain). Barry is evidently quite a centrist and getting more so. You've always been right that the 'liberal rhetoric' was more words than action. However, he has accomplished a great deal actually. Non trivial stuff. And he is well informed, smart, very capable. He has weathered a very difficult period. I expect more good things from him and support his endeavors and wish him well not withstanding the shortcomings.
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