The Rematch

As is well known, Barry has to win this one in order to salvage the election. More than before, a draw is a Romney win.

To Do:
Pretty much the same as before. MR must ramp Bengazi. Look alive and connect personally. He must communicate detail. BO must be on the offense, and not offensive.

Predictions: 1. Candy Girl: The moderator will be more of a pushover than is popularly anticipated.
2. 41 Redux: Mitt won't be as wooden as imagined.
3. 42 Redux: Barry won't be as "connected" as anticipated.
4. Verdict: A narrow (whence overwhelming) Mitt win.

The seconds tick... Candy Crawls in...

00h00
(*swoon*) The room is pretty. BO looks tense. MR scores an early victory by looking taller at the handshake.

00h01
Q1: Youth and jobs.
Barry sets a himself a Detroit trap. Will Mitt use it? Yes he will! But then "what governor Romney says just isn't true!"

00h01
The heat is on. BO doubles down on Detroit and offshre tax breaks. MO swings back hard. Q1 winner: MR

00h01
Q2: Should the govt lower gas prices.
A stammering BO swings at MR "he doesn't have the clean energy part." Second self-trap set. It's gonna be easy for MR to win if this trend continues. All he has to do is refute and counterattack. That makes BO look mean and weak.

The birds again! (small this time.)

MR looks tired and BO looks more cheerful than last time.

00h20
Boom! BO hits MR on coal.

Q2 winner: Draw

00h26
Q3: Tax deductions - which are safe under MR's cuts?
MR reveals hitherto unseen detail on his/her tax cut plan.
In split-screen, BO strikes the perfect medium between his round1 performance and Biden's.

00h35
Boom! BO hits MR on tax. The adage that you can't attack in the town hall is under serious threat.

MR dodges artlessly. Q3 winner: BO

00h39
Q4: How to crack the glass ceiling.
MR is gonna say "90% of the layoffs affected women."
(he says it - effectively.)
(I still hate the CNN live-poll curves.)

BO wisely(?) segues to healthcare. MR is gonna link "Obamacare" to an increase in taxes.

Q4 winner: Draw

00h47
Q5: Is MR Bush?
BO improvises impressively.

Q5 winner: Draw

00h53
Q6: Why vote Bo again?
Q5 winner: MR (the easiest question so far. BO struggled to defend his record. MR's tired stump lines were redeployed effectively. Ironically, the tedium of hearing these lines again invokes the fatigue of the jobless recovery itself.)

01h00
Q6: What to do with cardless immigrants?
MR gives BO the Gingrich treatment. We now know (courteousy of an immigration question) that BO is invested in China and Cayman Islands trusts.
BO tried (again) to appeal to the moderator to save him, which'll be replayed on the replays.

Q6 winner: MR

01h10
Q7: Who denied Bengazi security?
Bo makes it worse! ("as soon as I heard that the consulate was under attack, I called for more security" so much for proactive leadership.)
BO tries to politicise the question by accusing MR of politicising the question.
(just by the way, he's completely dodged the actual question.)

MR is noticebly - apparently deliberately - soft on the issue. There may be a calculation that the media is running the accusations hard enough.

MR fluffs the attack somewhat. BO then fillibusters out of it. There's too much reliance on Bidenesque theatre.

Q7 winner: Draw (but lossy in the aftermath.)

01h20
Q8: What's been done to limit assault weapon proliferation?
Fast and furious raises its head.
This is a boring, inherently drawish question. BO magically converts it to education.

Q8 winner: Draw (see above.)

01h28
Q9: How do we insource?
I won't tire you with the detail. Q8 winner: (slight) MR win

01h35
Q8: What's been said about you that's wrong?
Barry disavows "you didn't build that" and Mitt embraces the full 100%.

Q9 winner: MR win. Barry's last-minute 47% shot looked like a sucker punch.

Verdict:

A transcript draw (perhaps) but BO looked dodgy and offensive. BO scored with the base, but would have lost the undecideds. They would tilt to MR. Importantly, BO didn't make his liar charge stick (or try to.) This is a Romney win.