To Nashville!

Err... peeps!

I make no promises, but maybe I can live blog "tonight's" McCain/Obama debate. The challenges before me are:

1. Resolving the permanent barrier between my PC and the tv screen.
2. Staying awake until 4.30AM (Cape Town = UTC+1) when, thankfully, it ends.
3. writing and viewing at the same time.

Watch this space...

OK, the preliminaries:

BACKGROUND: McCain wanted one townhall meet a week (starting in June). Obama's handlers wouldn't let him come out to play. Tonight it happens at last. For the last time.

JARGON:
BLA - Body language alert.
BO -The Jim Crow term for uppity Illinois senators.
FCAn -Fact Check Alert #n.
GA - Gaffe Alert.
JM -JC for Arizona.
K5 -Keating Five (pejorative for the evening).
TM - Tom Brokaw.

STRATEGY:
Obama: - Look presidential.
McCain: - Look parental.

PREDICTIONS:
Another draw. At current levels of support, Obama wins if its a draw. This was his (successful) strategy in the tail of the primaries.

THINGS TO LOOK OUT FOR:
- Obama scowling.
- McCain sneering.
- Obama saying "Uhhh."
- McCain looking at his watch.
- Keating cropping up.
- Obama linking McCain to "the failed policies and philosophy of Bush" for the hundredth time.

OK, so this is a strangely "studio" townhall. Gallup selected the audience. Tom Brokaw officiating. He looks suspiciously like JM. I want to protest, but can't bring myself to.

Funny how the undecideds are exalted. "Only in America." They'll keep schtum.

00:00 They come onstage. JM loos reticent. They stroke each other. I didn't know that JM is a Southpaw. The Republican inside me is stirred.

00:50 BO won the coin toss. The first Bush-McCain link is landed. The scene is set. JM's task is to be au fait with details. He should be spewing numbers. So far BO has rambled superficial.

00:03 JM lies "Senator [Obama], it's good to be with you." He plays the Palin gambit. JM looks more rehearsed here, but I suspect that BO is keeping his powder dry. "Stabilise home values" is more detailed than BO's "executive pay" ramble. He drives a wedge between himself and Bush.

00:05 Brokaw allows JM to play the non-partisan, motivating "the sage from Omaha" for the treasury. BO smiles approvingly.

00:07 BO waxes partisan on tax cuts. His wind has been stolen just a little.

00:09 JM introduces his regulation flip gambit. It's a long story. I didn't expect this. I hear the stirrings of Keating.

00:10 BO hits the detail. He sounds professorial. It should work. But now the gloves come off. "You're not interested in hearing politicians pointing fingers" -after shoving JM ten of the best.

00:13 BO denies that the economy will get worse. "I am cnofident about the American economy" How's that possible if "the fundamentals are strong" is baloney?

00:14 JM asks my question above.

00:15 Not for the first time, a beau stumps BO. He says "uh" a lot. This conceals the question. It may work for him, but that woman sounded livid when she posed the question.

00:18 JM shows good ol' Southern charm. He calls the questioner a cynic. At least he's answering the question. BO sneers. But beautifully. I want to cry.

00:22 JM carries out his first outright duck. He's imbibed the Palin "I won't answer the question the way you want me to" KoolAid.

00:23 BO invokes the ghost of JFK. Where's Keating? I want more mud!

00:25 TB cracks a cute joke about deficits.

00:27 BO looks beautiful offstage. Have I said this before? Oops. Here he comes...

00:28 BLA - JM defies his inner oldman, by standing between questions. Trick is, he has a tiger-prowling reflex, which could hurt. The lanky BO prefers to slouch. Beautifully. (As I may have pointed out before.) BO has done a better job of actually answering this question.

00:34 JM is combining numeric specificity with pugilism. TB reigns in the uppity BO. I don't think it'll work, though.

00:35 FCA1 Do less than 90% of small businesses have an operating profit under $200,000? BO thinks so.

00:38 JM "Medicare is difficult." He's scowling a lot. He's landing some tax-related blows. It may have been a bad idea for BO to pick that fight.

00:40 The first anti-Palin question is asked. JM takes it on the chin. BO stumbles a bit in his fightback. He is restrained again.

Halftime assesment:
BO - He's getting the draw he wanted. The blows have been softer than they could've been. He looks better.
JM - He's doing much better in the economic section than in the first debate. He's more direct. He's been the more interesting character to watch. I feel at one with my inner Limbaugh.

00:46 JM is ducking. Now he returns artfully for a pert 10 second reply. His fighter pilot skills serve him well.

00:47 BLA - The audience is doing a great job of looking unimpressed (except the woman in blue who beams at BO.) I can't wait to see the polls.

00:48 Let's see if JM has learnt from the (recent) past. BO reprises his giveth-taketh-away tax attack from the first debate.

00:49 He hasn't.

00:52 JM infringes BO's copyright on the word "Uhm."

00:54 FCA2 Is Bo gonna fine small businesses that don't insure their staff medically? BO is doing a good job of showing that he feels the pain. You get healthcare for that.

00:55 Ding! TB calls the end to the BO-owned part of the debate. It's off to foreign policy now.

(the fat guy in blue looks like he could take a swipe at JM. I'd nudge the secret service at this point.)

00:60 BO "economizes" the foreign policy debate. Clever lad. We certainly aren't getting the argument-dominance of Biden over Palin in last week's debate.

01:02 On Rwanda and the Holocaust, BO reprises his inner Palin. When JM drops his voice to a whisper, he sounds like he's trying too hard. But if you're not too bored by the discussion you'd notice that between barbs, at least JM is saying something substantive by way of answering the question before him.

01:05 FCA3 I think that BO is wrong about the reasons that Bin Laden escaped. It had nothing to do with a shortage of resources, but a deliberate decision to leave it to Pashtun proxies. By the way, he's ducking what he called "an excellent question" about Pakistani sovereignty. (i.e. is a drone attack an invasion of sovereignty? She was asking about a Cambodia-style operation.)

01:10 "I want exactly the same, but different". JM defies his inner (and outer) old man with some GenY-speak about the surge.

01:10 BLA - JM drinks water through sips and gargles. FCA4 - Is BO's contention that Pakistanis' flagging support for America is limited to support for Musharaf true?

01:13 Palin won her McKieran question. Which of these two will win the Couper-Coles equivalent this time? (the blue lady has stopped smiling. I blame charm fatigue.)

01:15 The answer is neither. JM oversells the surge.

01:18 "Uhhhh.... For the most part I agree with Senator McCain"(Whoever accused BO of eloquence has obviously never heard Jon Kerry and Hilary Clinton.)

01:19 In the homestretch moments, BO reaches out to me by recalling the title of the underloved Jethro Tull jig "Thinking 'round corners."

All of you sit up in bed. don't think in straight lines ahead.
Can't sleep? head spin? don't think in circles, it'll do you in.
Think back to the dream you had; no sense of being good or bad.
Jump to the left, jump to the right. think round corners into night.

01:20 BREAKTHROUGH#1 - JM makes the audience laugh. They've promised not to do it. This is it. As Brokaw announces the last two questions, JM has landed the knockout for the evening. He said "Maybe".

01:22 BREAKTHROUGH#2 JM gets some love (warm smile and handshake) from a bald questioner. Even after his earlier jibe about hair transplants!

01:24 GA (just kidding - disappointingly, there weren't any tonight). Also Keating's been in hiding. The pink shirted baldie gives no love to BO. Dis some Bradley shi'!

01:26 The last question. BO has just finished his impression of talking like a robot.

01:27 BO's overweening ego makes him pass up an opportunity to self-deprecate. He channels his inner Rummy ("unkown knowns"). He decides to override the questioner's question with his own. I'm not just being an egregious redneck. This really happened.

01:29 JM won't dismiss teh question, but he's not gonna rub his nose in it entirely. More Rummy-reprise.

The verdict.
This has been much better for McCain than I'd thought. We now know why Rahm Emanuel wouldn't let Obama out to play townhall-townhall. He sucks at it.
Obama didn't loose the arguments, but this was his turf, and he bestrode it with insufficient dominance. Especially after Biden-Palin, this is net better for the Republican ticket.

It's been a pleasure staying up with you. Goodnight.