1. Waxwingsworkwonders: The cries of failure, while warranted, are overdone. The cool thing about being Icarus is that your version of crashing corresponds with (many) other people's versions of soaring.
2. It's a Truecents World: Our skepticism (see the truecents Inauguration Special) has now become mainstream. It's very gratifying to start as a wet-blanket and morph into an oracle. Today the cheerleading Guardian asks "Where did it all go wrong?"
3. Collective responsibility: This is the first anniversary not of one person's journey, but of Clinton mark II. It should be judged accordingly.
It'd be premature to call the remaining three years on the basis of the shaky first. But thin-ice diving is the truecents way...
1. The ghost of Dick Morris: Obama now (immediately, this minute) starts triangulating. The proposed bank tax was the first sign of the teabagification of his regime. It's toodeloo to hopeandchange.
2. Rabid Blue: As everyone's observed, the Blue Dogs will enter this November's election with increased panic. Ironically though, purple state senators will go canine, running on conservative themes in order to avoid the perceived Republican wave.
3. The implosion: The inaugural dreamteam disintegrates forthwith. Geithner is a likely first candidate. Emmanuel is a natural next, but he may be saved by his tenacious refusal to be killed. Then (ironically) Clinton may follow.
4. The GOP curve: To their credit, the Republicans have carried out all four key tasks prescribed in the Inauguration Special (latino fence-mending, pragmatic economic populism, candidate selection, tech savvy). In order to maintain the momentum, they have to keep the Tea Party on board. It needs to function as a grassroots movement, not a political rival. They also need to manage the chair of the RNC.
5. The rest of us: The world will be even less tractable to American foreign policy this year, than last.
As far as healthcare "reform" goes, there are four scenarios [with probability]:
- Pick off a Republican senator (or three) with concessions. [60%]
- Adopt the Christmas-eve bill in the House. [20%]
- Ram a merged bill through both houses in ten days. [15%]
- Fail. [5%]
It's gonna be a long three years.
3 comments:
True cents I think you need to update a) your prior predictions, and b) make new predictions on the basis of recent developments.
Far from being a hamstrung and useless sap (the way your portrayed him), President Obama is now empowered by the biggest domestic policy coup of the past several decades and is moving fast and furious on multiple fronts - with consequence! Tough with Israel, climate legislation in the mix, nuclear weapons coup with Russia, financial legislation reform moving, education reform moving ...
Now, the health care bill that went through left a lot to be desired, but it's better than nothing by a long shot.
The oil drilling idea is not appealing to environmentalists and lefties to be sure. Hard to read it. But anyway it won't be of consequence for many years and might be smart politics to get other stuff done. Although a bitter pill to swallow, one could see it as evidence that this president is not a mere populist, but an increasingly wily political triangulator who can get things done. Kissinger remarked a while ago that Obama was like a grandmaster: he has 6 games going at once but never finishes one. Well, he finished some now.
Very fascinating piece on the professor of war Petraeus here by the way: http://www.vanityfair.com/politics/features/2010/05/petraeus-201005
Thanks for the post, Lu.
Sadly my response was too long to make it into the response page (upper bound 4096 characters.) I've included it as a separate thread.
Thanks for linking the piece on "General Betray-us." I've not had time to read it, but I'm bemused at the comfort with which Bush's warriors (e.g. Gates) have settled into the progressive American bosom. The impossibility of the surge seems so very far away now.
Embedded in this is an historian's take on the rehabilitation of Patraeus and the surge.
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