As I blog, the voters of Massachusetts are enacting a breathtaking irony. By voting in a Republican senator to replace Ted Kennedy, they're indicating that the hopes of healthcare reform have died along with their staunchest defender.
Shorn of their 60-seat supermajority, Democrats have little choice but to concede heavily to Blue Dogs and tractable Republicans (like Sen Snowe), producing a version of the bill that will, as several commentators have observed, be a boon to the insurance industry.
Tonight signals a slamming of the brakes on Obama's legislative agenda. This will lead to:
1. Early triangulation by a President who'll now calculate that his party's liberal faction is worth less than the cost of appeasing it.
2. Longer negotiation cycles on further reform.
3. More aggressive cost-sensitivity in the design phase of further legislation. This is a structural conservative concession, mandated by pragmatism.
4. A muted Democratic agenda for November.
The era of Change ends in Boston this evening.
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